Schoenberg , Peng , Huang , Rundel . Exploratory analysis of wildfire data 1 Exploratory analysis of wildfire data in Los Angeles County
نویسندگان
چکیده
The relationships between wildfire incidence in Los Angeles County and various ecological factors such as temperature, precipitation and fuel moisture as well as fire history are investigated. A new method is proposed for assessing the role of timesince-fire in the case where spatial information on the fires is available. In addition, the relationships between variables are assessed using nonparametric statistical methods, and confidence intervals are obtained via bootstrapping, in order to avoid the restrictions imposed by parametric models. The relationships between covariates and wildfire rates do not appear to be linear. Instead, the data appear to support the general notion that fire risk is nearly constant provided various conditions are met, e.g. temperature exceeds a given threshold, and fuel moisture and precipitation are sufficiently low. The time expired since a location has burned previously also appears to be an important wildfire risk factor, with the risk gradually increasing up to intervals of 25 to 30 years, and remaining nearly constant thereafter.
منابع مشابه
Detection of nonlinearities in the dependence of burn area on fuel age and climatic variables Suggested running head: Nonlinear dependence on fuel age and climate
Evidence from Los Angeles County in California, USA suggests that the relationships between wildfire burn area and fuel age, temperature, precipitation, and fuel moisture are not linear. Instead, the relationships appear to have thresholds. The data seem to support the notion that fire risk is nearly constant provided various conditions are met: that fuel age and temperature exceed a given thre...
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